We hear a lot about “impact” and its importance to funders. Hopefully, your organization has a strong evaluation tool with well-defined metrics. Maybe you measure grade-level fluency or rate of employment.
Demonstrating impact is a fundamental component of a well-written grant that is funded.
But, recently, I have seen evidence that funders are looking for more…
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Counterfactual: Expressing what has not happened but could, would, or might under differing conditions.
For example, If X had not occurred, Y would not have occurred.
In grant proposals, this looks like, “How much of the change was due to your efforts?” Your true impact is the change you made minus what would have happened anyway without you. Determining what would have happened without the organization’s intervention is the “counterfactual.” Articulating this is going one step further in demonstrating true impact.
In the case of a job training program with a mission to help unemployed individuals gain skills and secure employment, the organization could establish a counterfactual group. These would be individuals who did not participate in the program but are unemployed and searching for work.
Since the job training program claims to increase employment rates among participants, the counterfactual would assess the employment rates of the non-participants over the same period.
By comparing the employment outcomes of the participants against the counterfactual group, the organization can determine the difference, which would be the true impact.
Using counterfactual evaluation allows for a more rigorous understanding of the program’s effectiveness and its true impact on the community.
Funders are favoring organizations that use counterfactuals to evaluate true impact.
Until next time,
Write Epic Grants
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